I delved back into the world of cable news yesterday afternoon after a weeks long self imposed ban on all things CNN and MSNBC. And I was pleasantly surprised by something I heard on Hardball. The lead in to the video below was, of course, the voting along racial divides. Then Bob Herbert says that the division between Obama and "white working class voters"(I'm beginning to despise that phrase) is not so much about race, but about generational divisions. Which is very true, but the media thinks race is more explosive and easier to define. Then Chuck Todd says something that gave me a shiver....
Up until last night, I figured Hillary Clinton had at least a shot at winning enough delegates and popular votes, and convincing enough super delegates of a more than reasonable argument that Florida and Michigan should be counted into the mix. She needed to win handily in Indiana and keep it very close in North Carolina. Neither happened.
Up until last night, I was prepared to write Hillary (another) $25 check to help with her momentum. I don’t have enough disposable income to keep that up any longer.
Up until last night, I figured that most every Hillary supporter would, when the chips are down, support Barack Obama. A look at a CNN graphic showed that most would, but about a third wouldn’t (20% of Obama supporters wouldn’t support Clinton). But it’s early in the game as far as that goes, so I’m sure there will be changes as people realize what a McCain presidency would look like – a mirror image of George Bush.
And finally, up until last night, I figured that if it comes down to Obama-McCain, Obama might very well have an uphill battle convincing enough democrats and independents to vote for him.
The biggest surprise of last night was not Obama's (real) double-digit win in NC, not the record turnouts, not even the nail-biter in Indiana. No, the biggest surprise was the bizarre narrative concocted by the MSNBC pundit team - a fantasy tale so intoxicating, so enticing to a punchy, tired newsroom that it even caught up Keith Olbermann. But not Maddow...
I still can't believe it--so I'll say it again: Chris Matthews quoted Markos as a Pundit, even if he only acknowledged Markos by calling him "The Daily Kos!"
It's Tuesday, Sixo de Mayo, 2008. Someone forgot to tell North Carolina it wasn't a big, mattering state in time to cancel this foolishness. So they're having it. Polls close at 7:30 EDT.
IMMEDIATELY CALLED FOR OBAMA AT 7:30PM EDT.
After tonight, there are 37 mini-races left, and Obama has been viable in every single one of these races so far, which means 1 delegate. 135 pledged delegates to clinch the majority. That means the magic number tonight is 98. 98 means checkmate.
The popular vote is a fallacy, as I've written before. A brief recap: 1) Candidates would camp out in large urban areas like LA and Brooklyn and never spend so many millions trying to split 200,000 votes in the whole state of NH; 2) No state would rationally hold a caucus, thereby disenfranchising its say in the nomination selection; and 3) unlike the general election concept of one person, one vote, allowing independents or Republicans to vote in some states but not others badly skews the simplistic moral argument underpinning popular vote.
Tuesday night, I am watching two numbers. First, if Obama takes down a combined 98 pledged delegates then pledged delegate checkmate can officially be declared, with the remaining 37 proportional races guaranteed to give Obama at least a minimum 1 vote and thus put him over the top on the minimum viability alone.
Second, I want to see Obama erase Clinton's PA popular vote gain, which would finally drive a stake into that argument.
This diary is a straightforward analysis of what it will take to regain 214,224 votes.
Full Disclosure: The interview linked to in this diary was conducted by a friend of mine. I hope that's not against any rules, but Jerry Meek--profiled in "Crashing the Gate", apparently--is an interesting political figure for a number of reasons and says some revealing things about the 2008 election.
As you probably know, Barack Obama's campaign has set a goal of reaching 1.5 million donors by the time Indiana and North Carolina vote on Tuesday. According to the (yes, currently updating) counter on the Obama website, there have been 1,485,001 unique donors to our Obama campaign. This includes around 1000 new donors in the last twelve hours, a pace that is not quite enough to get us over the hump.
[UPDATE: 200 new donors in the first hour! Keep it up!]
Maybe you've been waiting for the nomination process to end, or money has been tight and you've been waiting for that tax refund check to come in. Believe me, I understand and sympathize... but if you're not yet a donor, there's no time like the present to make your voice heard. Reaching the 1.5 million mark this weekend will get attention in the media and can help win Obama crucial news cycles heading into Tuesday's primaries.
So I was able to attend Senator Obama's "Get Out the Vote" rally in Charlotte,NC last night at the Cricket Arena, a smaller, older and intimate arena near downtown Charlotte.
I arrived early to insure a good spot to listen to Senator Obama and because I wanted to photograph the event. I should say that I am an semi-amateur photographer trying to do more photography and less of my day job. I use Leica M series cameras (www.leica-camera.com) and for this rally I was using the sublime Leica M8, their digital rangefinder camera.
One of my dreams has always been to be a photojournalist on a presidential campaign so this event was a fun little exercise in combining my love of photography, my aspirations and supporting the candidate that I feel is the best hope for our country to come along in my lifetime.
The North Carolina primary is the last primary of the 2008 season to assign over 100 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. It also represents an opportunity for Obama to make up the net delegates lost to Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania and a chance to make up a good portion of the 200,000 net votes lost to Clinton last Tuesday. While I know that "Scott in NJ" already posted his prediction of the congressional district breakdown of delegates, I wanted to look at it a little differently.
First, I wanted to see where each candidate may be able to pick up ground depending on the turnout of different demographic groups. We all know by now that Obama's key demographics have been African Americans, which he has been getting at a 90% - 10% clip, younger voters, regardless of gender, and men. Clinton's key demographics have women, mostly over 50, men or women over 65, and those that make under $50,000 a year. Also, I wanted to look at each district from a regional, educational and political philosophy perspective and who that may help or hurt.
North Carolina's attorney general has just put out a press release (pdf) saying that he's investigating the calls and taking credit for having them stopped. "Regardless of the motivation, the robo-calls violated the law and they needed to stop," Roy Cooper said. He also includes a correspondence with the group's lawyer. In the letter, Cooper requests a variety of information about the calls.
Elizabeth Edwards Calls Racist GOP Wright Ad an "Assault Weapon"
Taking time off from her family vacation in Florida, Elizabeth Edwards commented on the GOP racist ad, "Extreme," during an MSNBC interview, calling it an "assault weapon." Elizabeth went on to support Obama’s decision to separate himself from Reverend Wright.
