Although I enjoyed Barack Obama's recent web ad "Embrace" (the one with lots of hugging between Bush and McCain), I still think the campaign needs to be a little harsher.  The idea of a continuation of Bush policies into a third term should be scary, not playful.  Furthermore, I think it's important to emphasize that McCain has been "doubling down" on Bush's policies at the same time the rest of the nation (and world) has been abandoning them.

I created the following ad today to illustrate the kind of concept I'd like to see Obama's team create:

It's not exactly news that George W. Bush's job approval rating has been in free fall for the last few years.

And it's also true that the American Research Group (the yellow-diamond symbol in Pollkatz's Bush approval rating graph) often comes up with Bush's lowest numbers among pollsters (and has had Bush around the 20% mark before).

Still, there's just something amazing about a presidential approval rating of TWENTY-ONE!

Rasmussen's poll, which tends to give Bush his highest ratings, most recently shows 33% approval, but that can be separated into 13% who strongly approve and 20% who somewhat approve.

Last night on ABC News Charlie Gibson sat down with Senator John McCain and asked him point blank "are you the underdog?"

John McCain responded by saying that he is the underdog and that in fact he is surprised that the polls are as close as they are considering where the Republican "brand" is currently. I completely agree with Senator McCain on this point - why aren't the Democrats winning by 15% right now? We have maybe the least popular President in the history of the country running the show with an imbalanced and receding economy, a disastrous war without end, one scandal after another in the White House....

Yet a Senator who voted with that very same President 95% of the time is running virtually dead even with Barack Obama at this point in time. How is that possible? Or should I just throw up my arms and say 'hey, we elected George W Bush twice... nothing we do makes any real sense'?

I'm curious to hear what others think about this -

Vice President Dick Cheney made a brief appearance on Sean Hannity's radio show to weigh in on the Wright controversy. Apparently, Cheney was under the false impression that he had an ounce of credibility left with the American people.

"I thought some of the things he said were absolutely appalling," Cheney said. "And, you know, I haven't gotten into the business of trying to judge how Sen. Obama dealt with it, or didn't deal with it, but I really -- I think, like most Americans, I was stunned at what the reverend was preaching in his church and then putting up on his Web site."

Now, we've been caught up in the race between Obama and Clinton, as well as Captain Clueless, but lest we forget who the real enemy (idiot) is, new polling has Bush at his lowest levels ever.

Predicting that Republicans will "hold" the White House, George Bush said:

When I say I'm confident, I am so because I understand the mentality of the American people.

Uh huh.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"

Poll             Disapprove  Approve

CBS/NYTimes          64%       30%
Harris               69%       28%
AP/Ipsos             66%       30%
CNN                  67%       32%
FoxNews              59%       32%  

Thanks Karl, for making sure that the Republican Party continues to be the Bush Republican Party.

President Bush, down and all but counted out by friend and foe alike just three months ago, is rising like a bloodied but unbowed prizefighter, and Karl Rove predicts peril for Republicans and their presidential nominee if they shun the lame-duck president on the campaign trail [...]

"Nobody can risk looking disrespectful to the president without paying a price, and they need to understand that," said Mr. Rove, Mr. Bush's former top political adviser.

This piece is by Joseph Curl, who is your typical, blatantly dishonest right-wing shill. Note:

Some in his own party broke with him on the war, but as the "surge" takes hold and the president regains his footing — and with rising poll numbers, to boot — Mr. Bush looms large for Republican contenders next November [...]

Hovering at a dismal 29 percent approval rating just as Gen. David H. Petraeus, ground commander in Iraq, testified before Congress on the surge in September, Mr. Bush has since jumped to 36 percent in a poll late last month.

Wow! A seven-point rise! Aside from the bragging about 36 percent approval rating, note how dishonest this claim is: Two polls pegged Bush at 29 percent. The first, Gallup, now has him at 32 percent, the other is Pew, which now has him at 30 percent.

The 36 percent? A Fox News poll, which had Bush at 37 percent just before the Petraeus testimony.

And both those 29 percents where from late July. If you look at the pre-Petraeus testimony numbers, they were 31 percent for Pew, and 33 percent for Gallup.

In other words, Bush's numbers have gone down since the Petraeus dog and pony show, not up seven points as Curl claims. The rest of the piece is no better.

Just more of Karl Rove's math at work.

(From the diaries -- kos)

We have at long last a poll from Utah clocking in at 47%!  With the poll of Idaho in August, this means every single state has had a poll with approval of Bush under 50% at some point.

America the Beautiful, indeed!

Click to enlarge.  B&W version here.

Cross-posted at Open Left.

It was reported earlier this week by many traditional media outlets, that Bush dropped a whopping 5% points in one month in the Reuters/Zogby poll from 29% to 24%.  At the low end of the scale that is one hell of a drop! What the media, even Olbermann, didn't do is try to explain why this could have been? During another month in the endless carnage in Iraq it would seem pretty spurious to think it was a sudden onset of a huge number of people expressing dislike for the war.

What pushed the number down almost 15% from where it was is pretty clear to anyone who doesn't live inside the beltway.

Mr. President,

America has spoken. You have claimed throughout your presidency that you would always listen to those that elected you and that you would keep the best interest of the country at heart. Well, Mr. President, today is the day to put up or shut up.

America has long endured your wars of greed or misplaced desire to restore your father's honor. America has long endured your lies and misrepresentations. America has long endured your criminal administration and your illegal activities. But no more.

And I bet all of you can guess which one it is.

It’s not Idaho.  Idaho clocked in at 48% approval back at the end of August, and this suggests Wyoming is also below 50%.  But just the other day a new survey put Utah at 58%.  Oh, Utah....

Click to enlarge or animate (11/04-9/07, 1.4Mb; smaller version here).    

Below, which states have moved left faster than the nation, a way to estimate Bush approval in any district, and Bush’s bounces.

It has been nearly two months since I have looked at the public opinion landscape regarding the 2007 and 2008 elections. I have spent part of that time accumulating a pretty lengthy database of 2008 polling (would you believe there have been over 160 polls on the general election already, NOT counting polling on primaries??). Hopefully, I'll find a way to get that online sooner rather than later.

Numbers have come sporadically, but I think we have a broad enough field now to post some numbers, and make some analysis of it. I am not going to go all the way back to my last diary (which was on July 27th), but anything in September is fair game.

Follow me below the fold if you wish.....

Things are getting ugly out there. So ugly, in fact, that pollster John Zogby says the word 'dark' is inadequate to plumb the depths of the country's mood.

"The public mood is not just dark. What's darker than dark?" Zogby said. "The mood is getting ugly."

The Reuters/Zogby poll released yesterday shows Bush plummeting to his lowest point in a Zogby poll -- 29 percent -- and shows Congress also in the crapper. Basically, the country is hyper-pissed.

According to Reuters, Congress and the shrub are at record low approval ratings.  Why the occupants of the Oval Office are so unpopular is obvious, given the history of the past seven years or so.  Congress' low scores stem from continued refusal to end the Iraq war and impeach Bush and Cheney, even after Democrats were elected to majority status following twelve years of GOP domination.

It's Karl vs. Hillary

You've seen the Gallup poll.  Only 18% of Americans approve of Congress.  Now let's look further.

The last Gallup survey earlier this month broke up both parties. Only 29% of Americans approved of the Republicans in Congress with 64% disapproving, a full 8 percentage points lower than Democrats, who are approved by 37% of Americans with 55% disapproving.  Gallup also claims 32% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing.

A new poll by CNN (http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/08/15/rel8f.pdf) , shows that the American public thinks that the Democratic Congress has been a big failure since they took control.  The poll shows only 37% saying that it has been a success, and 55% saying it was a failure. This is an even worse spread than the 40%/56% success/failure poll that came out right before the 2006 elections.  Whats worst is that at this point in 1995,  the numbers were 52% success and 35% failure, even when they were trying to cut Medicare and Social Security.

As Karl Rove prepares to ride victoriously off into the sunset, his mission accomplished, let us take a moment to survey the united landscape that he will leave behind:

Click to enlarge.

The Southeast solid blue?  Who would have thought it possible?  Certainly not Karl Rove.  July’s numbers were truly stunningly dismal for Dear Leader.  The map above, when weighted by population, comes out to a national average of 30.4% approval for The Uniter, a bit above where Pollster’s moving average bottomed out.

Below, a visual tour of Karl Rove’s Permanent Republican Majority: approval ratings by county and congressional district, party identification, and party favorability.

Cross posted at Open Left.