Check it out here. It's a virtual tie--Obama 44% McCain 43%, but there are some interesting insights in the article:

Two front pagers talking about the polls yesterday, including Markos himself.  Both were correct in their analyses.  But I believe two critical aspects weren't addressed.  And let me just say, I'm not one of those rose-colored-glasses, everything's-great-for-Obama spinners.  Nor am I one of those gloom and doomers ready to leap from the Golden Gate Bridge just because Zogby says McCain's ahead by 5%.  Rather, I try to be as objective in my analysis as I can.  And the bottom line, from what I can see, is that although the poll averages are tightening some, the race is virtually unmoved from where it was when Obama's lead was proclaimed to be larger than it is now.  Here's why...

Taking into account the districts with open seats and the current generic ballot advantage held by Democrats, we would expect to see around 21 Republican-held House seats flip to Democrats this year if conditions are similar to the elections of 1994-2006.

Below, an explanation, as well as details on party identification, approval,  House retirements, and the generic ballot.  First up, party favorability ratings:

Click to enlarge.

Yes, by gum and by gosh.

And since I am grumpy I am going to share it with you.

3 things have me grumpy.

1. All this VP talk

2. All this poll talk

3. All this HRC talk

It's gotten to the point I do not even go out to the movies or show at all.

More after the break.

My God, this is entertaining. All the lefties freaking out; all the righties squealing with joy. Holy macaroni, McCain is up five percent in a national poll of several hundred likely voters! Argh!!

ARGH, I SAID!!!

You freaked out with today's Zogby poll. According to Pollster.com you shouldn't have.

A new NBC News poll, and now a new CBS News poll, have just come out, and they say the same thing. They both went from 6% Obama leads in their last poll to 3% Obama leads now, with both putting it at 45/42. This appears to me to be good news for Obama. They do confirm that the race seems to have narrowed, but McCain is still stuck in the low 40s, no matter what the poll is. However, McCain only gained a single point in the NBC poll (from 41% to 42%), and only 3% in the CBS poll (39% to 42%). According to Chuck Todd, most of those undecideds in the NBC poll were former Hillary supporters, and this appears to be the case in the CBS poll. This is bad news for McCain, and should demonstrate to us how important it is to win over voters who agree with Obama but are still disappointed. This is our key to victory. It isn't that we run enough negative ads, or pander, or run like republicans. Rather, we win our disappointed fellow democrats.

Well, too bad about the whole Obama thing, huh?

Apparently the 2008 election for President ended today when the always reliable Zogby announced that John McCain will be elected over two months from now by 5%.

This is a HUGE relief for me because I was worried I might have to spend the fall making phone calls for Barack Obama and giving money to Barack Obama and maybe even flying somewhere on election day to go door to door for Barack Obama, but now that the election is over my family and I are freed up to go on our semi-annual, cross-country, tour of cities that claim to be the "Cheese Capitol" of America.

Many of us felt that we couldn’t possibly lose to Bush—he was just so obviously bad for our country. At that moment, many of us felt like this could be it. This could be the election when we beat the Right, ended the Bush nightmare, and put a (decently) progressive candidate in the White House. We were wrong.

As we’ve seen Obama’s lead in the polls vanish over the past few weeks (the latest Zogby poll shows McCain with a 1 point lead), it’s a fitting reminder: this year’s fight will be at least as hard as ’04. You can follow the latest polls compared with the same week in 2004 by clicking here. http://www.progressivefuture.org/...

Obama polling behind McCain in even one national poll frankly strikes me as impossible.
One way of restoring some sanity or reality to this might be to remind people that John McCain
actually had the nerve to call Social Security a disgrace.
Well, maybe it is, but not in the way he thinks.

Not every worker has to pay the Social Security payroll tax.  Since the tax is big and regressive, one might think that this is a good thing for those workers, but by design, this was not so.  Two major categories of workers who were not required to pay into this program were farm workers and domestic workers.  As a result, they also did not qualify for any benefits to be paid out of the program back to them.  Why exactly did this happen?

Well, if you would notice the race and gender of the industrial and unionized workers that Social Security (and Unemployment Insurance as well) were primarily designed to help, this might become clearer to you.

This is going to be a short diary, so forgive me, but this is getting too pathetic, seeing everyone convinced we're gonna lose. It's sad when I see Michael Moore and Bill Maher and the Huffington Post go into panic mode as well. It's even sadder that some find it so gosh-darn difficult to do a little volunteer work for the campaign, but it's much easier to scream and cry as if you all were Corporal Hudson from Aliens.

It's become very aggravating to come on here or Huffington and see headlines about how we're all screwed and whatever the hell else.

Has anyone forgotten that our lives are at stake here? This isn't sports standings. This is our futures, and we have to work for it as if those were the stakes here.

McCain and the Republicans like to say that Obama is just a good speech giver, but not a true leader.

We all know that's absolutely wrong - Obama's policies are worlds better than McCain's and he's a natural leader.

BUT, the DNC can't come soon enough: We need a speech!

I'll keep this simple.

Obama is blowing it.

Faced with sinking polls and highly effective attacks from Mclame, he pretends all's well and no sweat.

In San Fransisco he promised donors he'd win.

Our guy is living in a bubble and doesn't even know it.

All his latest ads are ineffective.  He's always playing defense.  It makes him look weak and wimpy.

We are in the process of selecting the next President of the United States, the "Leader of the Free World", a man who will guide this country through some very difficult times, not a drinking buddy.  So stop asking who we'd rather have a beer with.  That's an insultingly stupid question.  It cheapens the discourse.

But that's not the stupid polling question that's been bothering me this election cycle.  No.  The stupid question that I wish the pollsters would stop asking is any version of the following:

Is America ready for a (fill in the blank) president?

There has been a lot of hand wringing, and a few I told you so's about Obama's latest poll numbers and the apparent tightening of the race. Everybody is wondering why, in what would appear to be a very favorable year for the Democrats is it tight at all. Bush's favorably ratings are at around 30%, an unpopular war, high oil  prices and a rotten economy. I mean this should be a cake walk, right?

Well maybe not. Let's face it, the Republican's may have lucked into the  the best candidate to go up against us. McCain's got a 20 year brand as a "maverick" some one who goes against the grain of the the standard Republican. I'm not speaking to the truth of this brand, but the perception and there is a big difference between reality and perception. Perception tends to win in the short term until folks start paying attention. And right now I don't think the majority of the electorate is paying attention.

Next are we really expecting to much. Gallup has an interesting read on this:

    Rasmussen released new Ohio results today showing McCain up 5 in the state. While this represents an improvement since the last Rasmussen Ohio poll which had McCain up with a 10 point margin, it's hardly cause for celebration.

    For one thing, the last Rasmussen poll had been dismissed in DKOS punditry circles as an outlier. It's much harder to dismiss this one, coming on the heels of a (D-leaning) PPP poll that shows the race dead even in Ohio. More disturbing, virtually all the polling shows that Obama is doing significantly worse in Ohio than in the comparable states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Michigan. Ohio is trending with Indiana, which is not where we want it to be.

   I did predict this -- consult my numerous diaries. I come not to gloat but to reinforce the message that fundamental changes need to be made in the Ohio campaign, and we are running out of time.

Conservatives are finally voting for the candidate they're being told to! A single Zogby poll has been released! The primaries aren't even over yet, and we're already doomed! DOOOOOMED!

Seriously, people. Breathe into a paper bag or something. All this hand wringing is not only unnecessary, it's completely counterproductive.

Up. Down. Swing Around. Poll Dancing Explained.

Obama's in trouble. Registered voters are now switching to McCain. Will he be back up by Friday?

Or will he drop again?

If you're like me and you follow the daily tracking pulls such as the Gallup and the Rassmussen poll, you're likely to get confused. How is it that people change their minds so often? I know that despite my candidate's missteps I don't change my mind...unless of course it's revealed that he slept with his videographer or something.